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Why wild streaks happen in gambling16 June 2015
The same woman wins two lotteries in New Jersey. Two people, a father and a son, have train accidents on the same day in two separate years. Someone is hit by lightning not twice but three times. You are thinking of a friend from years back and the next day that friend contacts you on Facebook.
These all seem to be amazing events. Yet, how amazing are they — how amazing are they really?
Not as amazing as you think.
A great new book, “The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day” by David J. Hand tackles the math behind “improbable events” and even supposedly “impossible” events.
Let me give you some examples from our casino gambling world: A self-proclaimed dice controller (no, not me) learns the skill from a class he took and for several trips to the casino, after practicing for several weeks, he wins — session after session for several days. He has never won more than one trip in a row in his life. That streak must prove he has dice control ability, right? No, not really. Pure chance has wild swings in fortune for casino gamblers.
A blackjack player comes upon the simplest card-counting method of all time; he studies goes to the casino and loses session after session — about 10 in a row. The card counting system must not work. No, not really. Pure chance has wild swings in fortune for casino gamblers.
I can go on and on. Wild streaks; wild wins and wild losses occur in casinos; they occur all the time. Why is that so? This book will explain it all.
Are there advantage players in craps and blackjack (and video poker and poker and Pai Gow Poker)? Yes. But the proof of the pudding is not a few wild streaks, even if those streaks are seemingly mind-boggling. To establish advantage takes far more proof than just “improbable” events occurring.
I think readers will enjoy the book, and if you aren’t schooled in improbability theory the book will open your eyes.
Is the book so mathematically difficult that the average reader such as me will be at a loss to understand it? No. Author David Hand has been able to make the concepts in the book totally understandable.
If you are interested in the improbable (or gambling) I think this book will speak to you.
[My new book is "I Am a Dice Controller: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Craps!"]
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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