Dear Frank:
I am a follower of [name of person] who thinks your ideas are nonsense. This guy writes many posts for many gambling sites discussing his advanced trend-betting ideas. He describes himself as a "trend bettor" without shame and he says that is the only way to play. He has self-published a book about his ideas but it is not in book stores, you have to buy it directly from him. I believe his book is banned from all the bookstores because the casinos don't want people to know about his trend betting concepts.
I have seen trends all the time in gambling but you claim there are no such things as trends. How could you be so blind not to see all the trends in the games we play?
Wendell
Dear Wendell:
You are wrong about everything substantive in your letter, including the idea that someone's book is banned in the bookstores.
Trend betting does not work in random games. You cannot get an edge over the house by simply betting for or against the trends you just saw. What happened in the past has no influence on what happens in the future. You've read these statements many times.
You can only beat the games if you can establish a real mathematical edge.
Obviously there are trends that are clearly noticeable in the past, but these trends cannot predict what is about to happen. It doesn't matter if red has come up five times in a row at roulette. It is still 10-9 that it will come up on the next spin. The trend was meaningless.
Now if you like trend betting and want to play that way, fine; then sit out a roll or two at craps or some spins of the wheel that you are playing and then figure what kind of trend just happened and bet with it or bet against it. Why? Because sitting out rolls and spins will reduce the hit on your bankroll. The trends you then bet for or against continue to be meaningless, but at least you have saved some of your money.
I am giving you a free 30-day subscription to my private member's only website at www.goldentouchcraps.com. We have over 5,000 members on this site and I think you will enjoy it.
Frank
