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Articles in this Series
Best of Frank Scoblete

Gaming Guru

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Three Small Misconceptions with Big Impacts - Part 1

1 November 2002

Some things sound logical but are not. In gambling you'll find this all the time. People will promulgate a concept, say to themselves "hey, this sounds great," then go out to a casino, employ their new design and -- get creamed. This creaming often occurs over time, so that only the truly astute gambler knows what a mistake his seemingly logical construct had been. The other players, who just don't follow their long-term results, will continue to throw more good money after their original good money and continue to think they are doing something logical.

In order to save you, our dear readers, from the logic of such above errors and misconceptions, we are going to tackle three small misconceptions that can have devastating consequences on your casino bankroll should you allow them to become a part of your gambling zeitgeist. They are the following:

Misconception # 1: "It's just a small investment for a potential big win!" Craps players who make those Crazy Crapper proposition bets such as Box Cars (12), Snake Eyes (2) or yo-eleven (11); Let It Ride and Caribbean Stud players who put up the jackpot side bet, and most slot players looking to gain 15 minutes of fame and a lifetime in fortune on those giant progressives fall for the small risk/big reward logic.

Looked at one way, it does make sense. If you bet the 12 at craps, the payoff is 30 to 1. Not bad. You risk a measly dollar and you can win $30. However, the house edge on the bet is a staggering 13.88 percent. That means for every $100 you bet on Box Cars, you'll be out an average of $13.88.

How does this translate into real, gambling life? If we assume approximately 120 rolls of the dice every hour, a person betting $1 on the 12 on each and every one of those rolls will "invest" $120 per hour. His reward will be an expected loss of $16.66 per hour. In a day of play, say, four hours, he can expect to average $66.62 in losses on that one bet. Ouch!

So how come the person who buys into that low-risk/high-reward logic doesn't see the flaw once the losses start building up? Simple. Gambling is anything but smooth. You have ups and downs. The person who bets the 12 will sometimes win, maybe quite a lot, at any given moment or in any given session. This encourages him to keep making the bet. The non-smoothness in gambling, sometimes called "volatility," makes it a rollercoaster ride. So those times that Box Cars come rolling your way, giving you a whopping payout of $30 for your $1 bet, will blind you to the long-term destruction such a poor wager is having on your bankroll.

The same can be said of all the high house edge bets at craps, they are just siphoning tubes going directly into your bankroll and draining it slowly but surely of its liquidity.

Now, what of those tantalizing side bets at Let It Ride and Caribbean Stud? A measly $1 opens you up for rewards in the tens and, perhaps, hundreds of thousands of dollars. True, some lucky so-and-so will occasionally win those wild jackpots but what about the hundreds of thousands of players who don't and never will? Here is what happens to them: Most jackpot side bets come in with house edges of approximately 25 percent, some more, some less, in order to fuel the big jackpots that you see. That means for every dollar you bet, the house keeps 25 cents. This is worse than the worst slot machine in the casino! At Caribbean Stud you get to play at least 50 hands per hour, so you can expect to give the casino a gift of $12.50 per hour (or $50 per day, assuming four hours of play). At Let It Ride, you might get in 65 hands per hour, so the cost to you will be approximately $16.25 per hour or $65 per day.

As you can see, those little investments become awfully big investments when you look at them over time.

Articles in this Series
Best of Frank Scoblete
Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete is the #1 best selling gaming author in America. His newest books are Slots Conquest: How to Beat the Slot Machines; Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker!; Beat Blackjack Now: The Easiest Way to Get the Edge; Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!; Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players; Casino Conquest: Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games! and The Virgin Kiss.

Frank and Casino City Times columnist Jerry "Stickman" teach private lessons in dice control. Frank's books are available at Amazon.com, in bookstores or by mail order. Call 1-800-944-0406 or write to Frank Scoblete Enterprises, PO Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565. Frank can also be reached by email at fscobe@optonline.net.

Frank Scoblete Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com

Books by Frank Scoblete:

> More Books By Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best selling gaming author in America. His newest books are Slots Conquest: How to Beat the Slot Machines; Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker!; Beat Blackjack Now: The Easiest Way to Get the Edge; Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!; Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players; Casino Conquest: Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games! and The Virgin Kiss.

Frank and Casino City Times columnist Jerry "Stickman" teach private lessons in dice control. Frank's books are available at Amazon.com, in bookstores or by mail order. Call 1-800-944-0406 or write to Frank Scoblete Enterprises, PO Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565. Frank can also be reached by email at fscobe@optonline.net.

Frank Scoblete Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com

Books by Frank Scoblete:

Craps Underground: The Inside Story of How Dice Controllers are Winning Millions from the Casinos!

> More Books By Frank Scoblete