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Three silly theories by ploppy "thinkers"

11 November 2010

Some hopelessly hapless critics of the best-of-the-best bets at craps such as the pass line and come with odds will state such inept arguments against betting on them. There are craps players, authors and Internet posters who just can't understand that the math of craps is inviolable if the game is random. If the game is not being changed by the presence of a controlled shooter who can alter the probabilities, then you are at the mercy of the math. And math has no mercy.

Three criticisms are widely used by the ploppy "thinkers" in the world of craps. All three are either theoretically or practically incorrect. Don't fall for any of them if you don't want to add to the casinos' edges over you.

  1. "You have to hit the number twice on the come to win; whereas with a place bet you only have to hit your number once! So the house edge on the place bets should be less than on the come if you understand the game properly."
  2. "You can't take the come bet down when it is up on a number but you can take down your place bets. This adds to your edge at the game."
  3. "The odds are a trick by the casino to get you to bet more! They are the most dangerous bets and should be avoided at all costs."

Let's go from completely idiotic thinking to semi-idiotic thinking as we look at these three propositions. If you actually believe in these, perhaps a rearrangement of your thinking process is in order.

Criticism No. 1 is totally idiotic. You don't have to hit your number twice. The first placement of both the pass line and come is not looking to hit a number -- it is desiring a hit on the 7 or 11, two numbers that give the pass line and the come bettor a two-to-one edge over the casino at that moment in the game (known as the come-out cycle) before a point/box number is established (known as the point cycle). While the place bettor is facing a 6.67% house edge on the 4 and 10; a 4% house edge on the 5 and 9, and a decent edge of 1.52% on the 6 and 8 (decent, yes, but not better than pass line or come) at that moment; who is decidedly better off? Do not listen to the ploppies who advocate such nonsense. You are far, far better off using the come bets than you are using the place bets, so stick with those come bets. You do not have to hit the number twice to win!

Criticism No. 2 is somewhat less idiotic . . . sounding, that is. The problem comes in with the fact that you'd have to turn off or take down your 4 or 10 about 80% of the time to make it the equivalent monetary loss of the pass line or come bet over time. The house edge doesn't change on that 4 or 10 or any other place number, of course, but by turning off or taking down your place bets the house edge has less money to work on, thus reducing your overall loss. But I know of no player who takes down his place bets 80% of the time on the 4 or 10, or 65% of the time on the 5 or 9. So while it sounds good that you can take down the place bets and thus lose less money, you won't see many people doing it. It's a shadow argument, not a real one. Stick with come bets. There is no substance in shadows despite what the ploppies say.

Criticism number three could be true to an extent if you actually do put out more money in odds if you are playing on a tight bankroll. But I advocate small pass line and come bets with maximum odds in direct proportion to what you would have bet otherwise. That is, $10 on pass with $20 odds ($30 total = 14 cent loss) rather than $30 on the pass line ($30 total = 42 cents loss). There's no trick involved here if you actually know how to play the game and utilize the odds bet properly. Again, just bet within your bankroll. Less on the pass and come and more in the odds. Make that odds bet pay for you by reducing the hit on your bankroll.

Now there are many other silly theories about how to bet at craps and all of them just do not stand the test of math or mind. For some insane reason there are many craps players who think they can predict what is coming up in a random game by what just came up in that same random game. It can't be done. Predictability in a random game is, I predict, not predictable. To think otherwise is a wrong assumption made by the countless legions of trend bettors.

To stand any chance of coming home with a win today, tonight, tomorrow and for planned sessions to come, you must make the lowest house edge bets. You must bet your money intelligently and not fall for the silliness spewed by gambling's unschooled. To do otherwise is to throw away money that is hard earned. Ignore the ploppies. Your bank account will thank you.

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Best of Frank Scoblete
Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete is the #1 best selling gaming author in America. His newest books are Slots Conquest: How to Beat the Slot Machines; Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker!; Beat Blackjack Now: The Easiest Way to Get the Edge; Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!; Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players; Casino Conquest: Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games! and The Virgin Kiss.

Frank and Casino City Times columnist Jerry "Stickman" teach private lessons in dice control. Frank's books are available at Amazon.com, in bookstores or by mail order. Call 1-800-944-0406 or write to Frank Scoblete Enterprises, PO Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565. Frank can also be reached by email at fscobe@optonline.net.

Frank Scoblete Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com

Books by Frank Scoblete:

Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players

> More Books By Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best selling gaming author in America. His newest books are Slots Conquest: How to Beat the Slot Machines; Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker!; Beat Blackjack Now: The Easiest Way to Get the Edge; Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!; Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players; Casino Conquest: Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games! and The Virgin Kiss.

Frank and Casino City Times columnist Jerry "Stickman" teach private lessons in dice control. Frank's books are available at Amazon.com, in bookstores or by mail order. Call 1-800-944-0406 or write to Frank Scoblete Enterprises, PO Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565. Frank can also be reached by email at fscobe@optonline.net.

Frank Scoblete Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com

Books by Frank Scoblete:

Craps Underground: The Inside Story of How Dice Controllers are Winning Millions from the Casinos!

> More Books By Frank Scoblete