Frank:
I hope you can help me with something. I enjoy craps and consider you to be an expert - thanks for your contributions to the overall education of craps players everywhere!
I have read widely and have come to believe that the house edge is lower on bigger odds bets. You have written that the house edge on a 2x bet is 0.61%, and on a 5x bet is 0.33%.
As I do the math, though, I can't replicate that. In fact, I calculate the house edge of any pass bet as 1.41% - regardless of the multiple of odds (by the way, it is still the best bet out there). Please help me.
Here is how I have been doing the calculations:
First, I look at each shooter and assume that he will have one of four outcomes: natural win, natural loss, point win, point loss. I can then calculate the chances of each happening and the payout of each. In the first table in the attached spreadsheet, I have the numbers for a 1X odds approach (assuming one unit on the line and one unit in odds):
The expected value is -1.41%, which is the house edge.
Now look at the next table for 2X odds. The changes are in the payouts for the point win's and the point lose's:
It appears that the extra winnings from the increased odds don't move the house edge - it is still -1.41%. In fact, the same is true for any multiple.
Thanks for your help with this question.
Student: T
Hi Mr. T:
When you are right you are right and when you are wrong you are wrong. You are right and wrong. The actual edge on the Pass Line bet is 1.41 percent. It is always 1.41 percent - you are right. If you bet $10 on the Pass Line your expectation is to lose approximately 14 cents.
The edge on the odds is always 0 percent. It is always zero percent. If you bet $10 on the odds your expectation is to break even.
If you bet $10 on the Pass Line and $10 in odds, your expectation is to lose 14 cents. Now, you can figure that 14 cents as only the Pass Line percent (1.41 percent) or as a combination of Pass Line and Odds which is about 0.85 percent. No matter what percent you give it - the loss is always 14 cents per $10 bet on the Pass Line.
You can have 100X odds and the percent on the Pass Line is still that 14 cent loss for a $10 bet.
Go here for complete information about the house edges at craps: http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/passline.shtml
For your great letter I am giving you a free one-month membership in our private web site at www.goldentouchcraps.com.
All the best in and out of the casinos!
Frank Scoblete
