Gaming Guru

Stupid Move or Smart Move?

My friends and I call ourselves The Five Horsemen, with our tongues firmly planted in our cheeks I'll have you know, and we are all black chip players. Two of our members are at orange chip levels. We prefer to play at $25 and $100 tables.

We play at $25 tables when other Golden Touch Craps friends join us who prefer lower stakes. That's fine too. When the table is full of our Golden Touch friends the game goes smoothly because everyone knows how the casinos pay off the bets. Our friends know when to place their bets; how to press their bets and how to deal with dealers who are often totally bored with dealing a craps game.

So one morning we came into a high end casino in Las Vegas that had two tables open, both of them with $10 minimums. Several people were at one of the tables; the other table was empty. I went up to the pit boss and asked him to make the empty table a $100 minimum table for the five of us. We also told him we expected four more players who would bet at $25 minimums if he would allow that.

In Vegas the pit boss can allow what he wants. He can have a $100 table and also allow others to bet $25 minimums at that table. It is his discretion. This is called grandfathering, even if the player wasn't playing at the table when the minimum was raised.

The pit boss said, "No. We want two $10 tables in the morning." Was this pit boss smart or stupid? Think about it.

Okay, here is the answer: He was stupid. Five $100 minimum players are the equivalent of fifty $10 players; yes, that's right The Five Horseman equal 50 ten dollar players -- enough to fill up 4 complete craps tables of $10 players. Add in the other four $25 players who would be arriving and you have the equivalent of 60 players at a $10 table. Yes, that is five tables with 12 players each at $10 minimum tables. And using only one crew!

Why wouldn't any casino want that amount of money being wagered, especially a high-end one such as this?

But this pit boss preferred to keep the tables the same. That was stupid of him. Why? Because as soon as several $10 players appeared to play at the table we headed for the door and to another high-end casino so that all nine of us could play at the same table. The other high-end casino was staffed with a smart pit boss and he immediately changed the table minimum to $100.

Here's another one from the player's side: The yo-eleven has just hit three times in a row from a shooter who kisses the dice, talks to the dice, shakes the dice in his hand with such ferocity that it seems he intends to split them; and then he wings them like a jet down the table where they bounce and careen all over the place before landing on a number.

Should you bet the 11 because it is a hot number? And look at the few people who have already bet the 11, boy did they make money! So what is the answer to this one? A big, fat capital NO! It doesn't matter of the 11 hit three times in a row, or five times, or six times -- you keep betting that number and you will lose 11.11 percent of all the money you wager. Is there more of a likelihood that the 11 is going to come up the next time because it did the last time? No.

When you play a random game of craps, the past is no indication of the future. Let me put it simply: If the 11 appeared 20 times in a row -- why would it ever stop appearing? Shouldn't such a streak last forever since it is so monumentally hot? Obviously not. It doesn't, it never has, and it never will. All streaks end. I don't think any casino player would doubt that.

But ploppy players can't seem to understand that in a random game of craps the past streaks are dead. To quote Jesus Christ, "Let the dead past bury its dead." Well, let the dead numbers bury their dead as well. If you don't let them, your money will go just one way -- to the casino's treasury. That's a streak that actually might never end.

Okay, one last one. There is a myth that when a beautiful young woman who has never played craps before gets the dice she will have a hot roll. When one such beauty giggles and says, "Oh, I have never shot the dice before," should you throw more money than normal on the table hoping she will fulfill that mythos?

I am sure everyone knows the answer to that one!