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Should you ever place the 5 or 9?10 October 2012
There’s been a lot of debate about the placing of the 5 and 9, some of it quite intense on our message boards.
Well I am now going to settle this thing once and for all – or at least for the next few minutes while you read this. I am dealing with controlled shooters now, not random rollers. On random rollers the answer is always, ALWAYS no!
There is no doubt that with a controlled shooter what happened in the past, meaning the shooters SRR and/or SmartCraps results, does tell you something about what will happen in the future. If a shooter is reducing the appearance of the 7 he is obviously increasing the appearance of other numbers, maybe not all of the other numbers but certainly some of the other numbers.
Now a controlled shooter, maybe even you, has just hit a few 5s (or 9s) in short order. Do you Place the 5 in that case? The answer, startlingly, is yes … and no.
Let’s take the “no” first. Is the appearance of those 5s enough to warrant a place bet against the large 4 percent house edge on a 5 (or 9)? Here is the unexpected answer: Forget that the shooter just rolled those 5s, the question you should ask yourself is this, “Is that shooter’s SRR and/or SmartCraps results indicative of an ability to overcome a 4 percent house edge in the future?” The answer to this is usually “No, he isn’t good enough from this point on to overcome the 4 percent house edge on the 5.”
It doesn’t matter that he just hit some 5s; you have to look towards his future prospects based on the wealth of his past performance, not based on a few rolls that just happened. Most dice controllers' past performances indicate that much more money can be made by placing the 6 and 8 and using pass and come betting.
For most dice controllers that settles the issue. DO NOT place bet the 5 and 9. The edge is too high, period.
Now too many novice and intermediate dice controllers have a bloated concept of how good they are. They think, erroneously, that they can overcome the house edge on the 5 because the 5 just showed a few times. This is somewhat equivalent to the idiotic concept of trend betting proclaimed by the loudest ploppies of craps.
Check out our book “Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!” and you will see just what hefty kinds of SRRs you need to actually overcome the house edge on the 5 place bets.
Now let me go to the “yes” place-the-5-side of the argument -- but first, an absolutely important preface:
My son Mike, the genius, once told me how he achieved his 1600 on the SATs when 1600 was the perfect score and how he achieved a 99 average in a really demanding private school. (Mike received a merit scholarship and got a BS in chemistry, then a masters in political science, and is now a few credits away from his doctorate in literature.)
Mike said he was an “active listener” in class. “Dad,” he said, “most kids daydream during parts of the class or don’t listen when other kids ask questions. If a class is 45 minutes you should pay close attention to those 45 minutes and you then get what you have to get to do well in school. In study hall, you should study and reinforce what you just learned.”
It worked for Mike; he almost never had schoolwork to do at home since he had taken care of school in school.
Okay, next example: Kids selectively listen to what teachers say. Take the sex talks that now seem de rigueur in public schools. Teachers say the following, “You shouldn’t have sex but if you are going to have sex, use a condom.”
What the kids hear is this: “Have sex.” The rest of the sentence is forgotten.
Craps players, yes, even some students of Golden Touch, also have selective memories of the information we impart in class, on this website, in our books and on our DVD. They look for ways to continue stupid betting practices by scrounging around for trend systems, the “see a horn, bet a horn” systems, and other systems that essentially make them losers even if they have developed a controlled throw.
So what I write now is NOT to be selectively remembered. Remember it all or don’t read it.
If you have elite – and I mean a really elite – controlled shooter such as No Field Five who has just hit several 5s in short order, then you can place bet the 5. Hey, why did he get the nickname No Field Five?
There aren’t many shooters on this planet as good as No Field Five and I am guessing that none, not one, not a single one, of the posters who are advocating to “go with the flow” or “jump on the hot table” can touch No Field Five’s skill. These posters are delusional if they think they can match No Field Five’s devastating performances on that high-house-edge wager. They can’t. They are merely throwing their money away when they place bet the 5 (or 9).
Now those of us who know No Field Five’s performance level can safely say that in the future he has the ability to wipe out the house edge on that 5 and make us quite a bit of money doing so. We also know that when we start the betting on him, we do not bet start with a 5 because overall we still make more money on No Field Five’s hitting of the 6 and 8.
So unless you are at the tables with a true master of dice control who is getting into a real streak, not an imagined one, then DO NOT place bet the 5 or 9.
And do not selectively remember the above to think it gives you permission to follow the advice of new or intermediate dice controllers who now fancy themselves experts or of systems advocates. “Have sex” this ain’t!
There is one more point that is somewhat profound. Advantage craps really shouldn’t be looked at in the short run where numbers are appearing and disappearing with great frequency. It should be looked at globally over thousands, hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions of rolls. When it is looked at that way, almost all controlled shooters will make much more money on the 6 and 8; on come and pass line bets, than they will on attempting to hop onto short term fluctuations happening now. The No Field Fives of the world are a rare breed indeed.
So my advice is this: Do not place the 5 and 9. If you wish to go with other numbers use the Come with a minimum of 5x odds. This formula is tried and true. This formula is truly the “keys to the casinos’ money.”
And for those of you considering coming to our Golden Touch dice control classes, get it into your heart and head that your mind has to be actively listening the whole time.
[This post appeared on the private, members-only Golden Touch website. Get a free 60-day subscription. Just e-mail Frank Scoblete at firstname.lastname@example.org.]
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at email@example.com.
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