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"See a horn; bet a horn" redondo5 August 2010
To Golden Touch Craps:
Your articles stating that craps cannot be beaten by mathematics is incorrect. Craps is the only game where the player/non-shooter can, with specific betting patterns, create as much as a five-to-one edge over the house on any given roll of the dice. I would challenge the "dice controllers" to throw consecutive (at least 3) horn numbers (2, 3, 11, or 12) consistently. The horn numbers come up as often as the 7 (six different ways). What do you have to say to that, genius?
Answer from GTC Member to Raymond:
You're speaking nonsense, Raymond. There is no mathematical proof that a random game of craps can be beaten.
There is ample mathematical proof that a random game of craps cannot be beaten. Read any math text with the most basic of coverage of dice probabilities.
It's unfortunate that huskers are still trying to use gambling addictions to make silly arguments like this. Good luck with your "system".
The only way to win at craps is to influence the dice outcomes. The only way I've seen any statistical evidence that backs such a method is axial dice control. The software SmartCraps lets people test their rolls for statistically significant influence, and then optimize their dice sets for their skill, and determine their edge.
Answer from Raymond:
First, thank you for taking the time for answering my e-mail. Second, why did you not field my inquiry about the horn bet?
I find it saddening that you would consider "nonsense" the simple mathematics that the game of craps could not be reduced to betting patterns favorable to any player with discipline, patience and practice. While I recognize that no system is foolproof, because gambling is inherently risky, betting patterns within the craps rules does, in fact, offer real player advantages of from slightly less than two-to-one up to five-to-one over the house on any given random roll of the dice.
The GTC math calculations might be impressive to some, however, they are lengthy, cumbersome and erroneous because they factor in the come-out rolls, pass line bets and free odds bets associated in the total picture of the craps game. Simply put, if a player bets only after the point is established, the odds become favorable to that player regardless of what the point is. When players do play the pass line and free odds bets, the house now has a better than 50 chance of taking the pass line and free odds wagers because the 7 can be rolled more ways than any other point.
After a point is established, there are 30 ways to win and only six ways to lose. That is a five-to-one advantage for the player. Does that work all the time? Of course not, but EVERY SHOOTER SEVENS OUT 100% of the time.... sometime.
GTC research provided was real "nonsense." It does not take careful review to figure out that the limited number of "manipulative" shooters and very limited number of rolls provide no reasonable viable statistical sample.
I am not trying to put you out of business. I wish you well. I leave you with this one thought that the standard way of wagering in craps, i.e., the pass line and free odds bets requires a "hot" shooter while betting patterns providing player's advantages only require patience, discipline and practice and two or three rolls w/o a 7 to win consistently.
Answer from Me:
Odds are one thing; having an edge is another thing. Yes, the horn bet will come up six times for every 36 rolls of the dice. No, you do not have an edge on the bet because the casino short-changes your win. The house edge is 12.5%, which means that you lose $12.50 for every $100 you bet on the horn. Once again, the casino does not change the odds, it just changes the payouts. You lose; they win in the long run.
The same holds for the five-to-one edge on all the rolls versus the seven. All place bets and proposition bets (Crazy Crapper bets) are paid off incorrectly to favor the house. Again the odds of a number coming up do not change but the payout changes to favor the casino. In short, you are being taxed on your wins.
Finally, there are no "patterns" in a random game that can be predicted -- no matter what has happened in the past, the future is merely probabilities that cannot be changed by past results.
Consider reconsidering your ideas, they will cost you a lot of money.
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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