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Placing $44 inside: Good or bad bet?2 July 2009
OK, we all know that any bet on random rollers is a losing bet in the long run even if you win it once, twice, or many times in succession. The house edge will have its way no matter what you think, wish or "logic" out. The casinos go to the bank with the money from players following poor advice.
Only fools think the house edge does not work in the short run because true players who play often enough will start to be in some form of the long run — regardless of what happened tonight. Heed the math or face bankroll extinction. If you play frequently, even once a month, ultimately you will pay the price.
Now, a very popular bet, pushed by gamblers who have no idea of true gambling, has been around a long time — you place $44 dollars on the inside numbers of 5, 6, 8, and 9. This is a bet recommended against random rollers. (This bet can be any multiple of $22 as you go up and down the scale. I am using $44 because there are now so many $10 minimum tables.)
The house edge on the 5 and 9 is a large 4%. The house edge on the 6 and 8 is a rather bearable 1.5%. On the $44 inside bet you will lose 40 cents on the 5 and 40 cents on the 9 ($10 x .04 = 40 cents) and you will lose 18 cents on the $12 placement of the 6 and 18 cents on the $12 placement of the 8 ($12 X .015 = 18 cents).
Most gamblers don't realize that the proper way to look at their bets is to subtract the house edge from each and every bet. Most gamblers think in terms of wins and losses. "Hey, I won five sessions in a row betting the inside numbers." Yes, you did, but in truth you actually lost money when you won those sessions if you understand how the house edge really works. By the way, the casinos understand this completely.
You see the wins and the losses camouflage the fact that the casino will ultimately win its edge from each and every bet as these bets start to add up. The idea that somehow the "short run" can make up for the math of the long run is not applicable for players who play often in the casinos.
Yes, if you play once or twice in your lifetime, then you might escape the ravages of the house edge because you really didn't put in the time to see that edge work itself out in your particular playing days. However, here is the big myth: if you take thousands upon thousands of players playing just two days of inside numbers what do you think the end result will be?
Why it will be close to the house edge on all the money bet during those two days. That's right, on the random game of placing those inside numbers the totality will be just what the math says it will be whether you personally are on the winning side of the curve or on the losing side of the curve.
The only way a smart gambler should see that house edge grinding away at his or her money is to figure that every time you place those inside numbers for $44 you are giving the house its percentage as shown above. And the more you play, the closer you will be in reality to those inside numbers' edges.
Most craps players in random games are gamblers without a clue. Any "expert" who recommends this way of betting is saying it is OK to lose a lot for placing those inside numbers against random rollers.
Now you do want to use the best bets possible to cut that house edge to its lowest possible edges. These bets would be pass and come taking full odds assuming you can afford that — if not, place what you can afford because, in truth, you are going to ultimately lose even the best bets in the random game of craps.
So, say you wish to bet $44 or as close to that as you can get. If you are at a double odds game do the following: Place $10 on the line (house minimum) and $20 in odds ($25 in odds on the 6 and 8. Place one come bet for $10 with $20 in odds. The house edge is 1.4% on that pass line bet and 1.4% on that come bet. You will lose only 28 cents on these bets even though you are betting $60 when the bets actually make it to the numbers.
Is 28 cents better than $1.16 which is what you lose on those inside numbers? Is a savings of 88 cents a better deal? Despite what gamblers say say, I think saving 88 cents is a good deal.
Again, you need a decent bankroll to play those pass and come bets with full or partially full odds — that's obvious. I have the recommended bankroll requirements in my book Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution. Of course, these are just my recommendations, nothing writ in stone.
I recommend adding the 5-Count to your routine as well. This will eliminate 57% of all random rolls so your money will last even longer. You can play your usual amount of time but your losses against those random rollers will be much less.
Finally, if you hate making come bets, and for some reason many gamblers do hate them, then just stick to placing the 6 and 8 for $12 each. The placement of the 6 and 8 is a decent bet. And if you can buy the 4 and 10 for $25 or $30 paying the $1 commission on wins only this is also a decent bet. But remember the total hit on all the money you bet whether it is just the 6 and 8; or just the 4 and 10, or all four of these numbers together, will be the house edge on each individual number.
A word to the wise — short of never playing random rollers; short of not playing the 5-Count; you are still in much better shape betting the pass and come.
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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