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Part Two: Taking Advantage of Non-Random "Random" Craps7 August 2004
In my last article I speculated that the success the Captain has had with the 5-Count in actual casino play might have something to do with the ability of the 5-Count to get us on "hot" shooters, defined as that percentage of crapshooting players who are altering the outcome of the game based on their style of throwing the dice. Some of these are controlled shooters, such as Dominator, Howard "Rock 'n Roller" Newman and Sharpshooter, who have, through intensive practice, learned to alter the game to favor them. But most are "unconscious" (as in unaware) rhythmic rollers who have, either over time or over the course of a given night, accidentally hit upon a roll that is favoring some numbers over other numbers.
Not all shooters having good rolls would be considered "hot" shooters by this definition. You would need to see that they were setting and lofting the dice in the same way and that the dice were more or less reacting in unison when they landed and hit the back wall.
If a certain percentage of the players (I speculated 5 percent) were indeed changing the nature of the game, this does not mean that it would be evident in the statistics. I showed clearly that you could have statistics that looked as if they were arrived at through randomness when in reality you had controlled shooters at work. In short, unconscious rhythmic rollers would be changing the game in self-eliminating ways; some would be hitting an inordinate number of 7s; some would be hitting a lot of craps numbers; some would be hitting this or that box number or numbers. In short, many of the unconscious rhythmic rollers would be canceling each other out.
An average player would not notice that such was the case. He'd see his money go up and down, depending on how he bet and who was shooting, and at the end he would be happy because he won or miserable because he lost. With bets evenly spread among a legion of average players, the casino would see no difference in its bottom line between what was really a random game and what was merely an apparently random game.
But what about a player who was truly savvy? Could such a player exploit the controlled shooters and the unconscious rhythmic rollers to win some money?
Yes. Here's how.
You can do it by watching each shooter intensely and attempting to ascertain on the fly whether the shooter was consistent enough in set and delivery to be changing the nature of the game to favor certain numbers, be they craps numbers, box numbers, or the 7. Then you would, having mathematically analyzed the strength of said shooter's control in order to make sure he was overcoming the house edge, bet accordingly. If a shooter were hitting more 6s, you go right up on the 6; if he were hitting 4s, you'd buy the 4.
The above method is, of course, fraught with danger as you are making a wild leap that the short-term results of your study really indicate that the next rolls will have a statistically better than probable chance of continuing. This would not be quite so hard if a shooter of the caliber of a Mr. Finesse were rolling the bones, as his set, grip, delivery, etc., would be clearly indicative of a master dice controller. Then you'd go with whatever bets he was making on himself!
The best way to get up on controlled shooters such as the ones I've actually named in this article or on unconscious rhythmic rollers is to use the Captain's 5-Count. Using the 5-Count will eliminate the guesswork and it will position you to be on the "hot" shooter more than you'll be on the average shooter. And that's a fact.
In a massive study of millions of simulated shooters, Dr. Don Catlin, Professor Emeritus of Mathematics at the University of Massachusetts, discovered the following: "The 5-Count selected the skilled shooter 10.7 percent more often than it selected the random shooter."
An average player bets on all shooters; he can't distinguish the skilled shooter, be he a conscious one or an unconscious one, because his attitude is that luck is the be-all and end-all of the game. But if there is more to the game than luck, the 5-Count reduces the number of random rollers you bet on and increases the number of "hot" shooters you bet on. It's axiomatic. A 5-Counter will be on every single good roll! And after millions of decisions are rendered at craps, he will have played the skilled shooters 10.7 percent more of the time.
What's more Catlin's study found out that the 5-Count, in a strictly random game eliminated approximately 57% of all shooters. Now, in the real world where dice controllers and rhythmic rollers are canceling each other out to make it look as if the statistics of the game are random, a 5-Counter has a huge advantage over the average bet-all player. The 5-Counter will avoid 57% of the real random rollers; he'll avoid all the die controllers who are sevening out more frequently than probability indicates, and he'll be on all the shooters who are radically altering probability to favor this, that, or those box numbers.
And what if my speculation that controlled shooters - be they conscious, unconscious, long-term, or temporary - change the nature of the game without it being seen in the statistics is wrong? Would following my advice about the 5-Count be disadvantageous to you? No, it wouldn't. You'd still be able to eliminate 57% of random rollers and when a real controlled shooter arrived on the scene, like those mentioned in this article, you'd be able to take advantage of any hot rolls they had.
In short, using the 5-Count is a win/win situation. If I'm right about craps being less random than theorists think, then you could be in for long-term wins simply by using the 5-Count on all shooters. If I am wrong, no harm done. You've reduced your exposure to the house edge.
In conclusion, there is no downside to playing the 5-Count.
If you are interested in reading more about Dr. Catlin's study of the 5-Count go to www.goldentouchcraps.com.
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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