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Part three: Dum-Dum says, "quit while you're ahead!"19 April 2007
This is the last in my series dealing with Dum-Dum's gambling advice. Dum-Dum is a real casino gambler whose ideas and strategies guarantee the casinos hefty profits for the foreseeable future. He gave himself the nickname Dum-Dum, which is befitting. However, Dum-Dum is not just your average idiot for he is somewhat well read in all the wrong methods of play and he spouts things that are absolutely not true as if they have the weight of the blessed deity behind them.
Follow Dum-Dum's advice and you will become a Dum-Dum -- and the casinos will love you and shower you with their gratitude because you will lose a lot more than you need to in enjoying your leisure pastime.
DUM-DUM: "Step Number Five: Always quit when you are ahead. How hard is that to comprehend? But all these so-called experts discuss when to leave games and they never just say quit while you are ahead. Are they dumb or what? I have never heard Scoblete say, hey, man quit while you are ahead. Now, who's a dumb-dumb?"
SCOBE: Quitting while you are ahead is another nice-sounding concept that also holds no water for a variety of reasons. If you are a confirmed casino gambler, it holds no water, period, because the very first time you get ahead, you should then quit and never go back to the games, correct? Because when you are playing against an edge, the more you play, the better the chance that you will lose. This is a fact, not an opinion. Real casino gamblers are fighting a very tough uphill battle. So the first time they get ahead they must quit forever in order to be ahead forever.
Another way to look at it is this way: As a regular casino gambler you are just playing one long session. Your whole gambling career is one session that must end in a loss since you are playing against the house advantage. If you play your peculiar Dum-Dum strategies at blackjack -- not splitting eights against a dealer's upcard of 8, 9, and 10 or splitting two fives against whatever -- your loss will come four times quicker than an average basic strategy player. If you play your Dum-Dum strategies at craps, making all those high house-edge Crazy Crapper bets such as the Any Seven, your money will go very quickly.
But let's look at some real scenarios for gamblers. Say a player lives in New York and he flies the five and a half hours to Vegas. He has been saving his money up so he can play $10 per hand at blackjack. It's taken him a year to save the money for this gambling trip that will be four days in fabulous Sin City. Now, he arrives in Las Vegas. Coming off the plane he is like a hungry gambling lion. He decides "what the heck!" and he puts some coins in a slot machine in the airport. Bingo! He wins $6. He is now ahead. Should he cancel his trip ("Quit while you're ahead!") and book a flight back immediately? He is, after all, ahead, right?
Let us say, he decides to keep the $6 and go to the hotel. He checks in and strolls over to the blackjack tables. He can't resist putting down a $10 bet on blackjack. So he places one $10 bet and, holy cow!, he wins! He is now $16 ahead. Should he quit and spend the next four days touring Liberace's museum? Or should he book a plane home?
Say he decides to actually quit while he is ahead and go home. He now saves up more money for next year's Vegas trip. He arrives in Vegas and wins his very first hand of blackjack at $10. He now goes home again. In the third year, he loses his first hand, and his second hand, and his third hand, and his fourth hand, and his fifth hand. Other than the time frames of several years, what difference does it make that he won a few bets and then lost a few bets? No difference. It's as if he played those hands in ten minutes. Those three years can be considered one session, too.
Now, if you were to say that after a satisfying session of however long that might be, you find that you are ahead and the thought hits, "Maybe I should call it a night and go to bed with a win," then quit and go to bed. You'll sleep well. Or if you have two hours before your plane is departing Las Vegas after four glorious days and you are ahead $10, you might say to yourself, "Let me not play that $10 and now I can actually go home a winner for this trip." That would make some sense. But just carping on "quitting while you are ahead" is a meaningless, well, carp. About 30-40 percent of casino gamblers are ahead after their first bet. They are not heading for the doors and if you, Dum-Dum, were ahead after your very first bet, you wouldn't be heading for the doors either.
For advantage players such as card counters, video poker experts, or dice controllers, you play as long as you aren't tired or emotionally overwrought by a bad streak. Some card counters can play for hours at a time at peak efficiency; some get tired after only an hour. As a dice controller, you probably can shoot three to five different times in a session and then the body needs rest. You make intelligent bets the house edge of which you can actually overcome. You never bet an amount that interferes with your relaxation at the tables. (If you are thinking about the size of your bets, you are not focused on the task at hand -- trying to win money.)
So Dum-Dum, the phrase "quit while you're ahead," sounds good but when examined it just doesn't hold up. Over time, if you are playing against the house edge, you will lose; if you are playing with an edge, you will win. Unless a player decides to quit forever the very first time he gets ahead, the saying just doesn't hold water. For most casino gamblers, "quitting" while ahead or behind just isn't in the cards, dice, roulette wheel, or machine. They play until the game of life ends. And that is as it should be!
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at email@example.com.
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