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Part One: Is Random Craps Really Random?30 July 2004
I have a mind experiment for you. We know that in 36 rolls of the dice, the probabilities of the various numbers coming up are as follows:
If we had perfect probability work itself out in 36 rolls, you would see all the numbers appear their given times. If we had perfect probability work itself out in 36 trillion rolls, we would see all the numbers work themselves out a trillion times more than they do in 36 rolls.
Now, let us say that you are looking at a sheet of 36 trillion craps decisions and you notice that all the numbers have appeared based on their probability. You would say that the game that was played was random.
Now I come to you and say, "Hey, wait a minute. Bill Carbone shot the dice one trillion times and only hit the 2, he hit no other numbers. And Dave Granger shot the dice a trillion times and only hit the 12. Tom Smith hit six trillion 7s and his wife hit five trillion 6s and her lame excuse for a brother hit five trillion 8s. Look at this, Joe Snode hit the 4 three trillion times in as many rolls, and his wife, Pam, hit the 10 three trillion times, too. Timmy McMann hit the 11 two trillion times; Barry Durso hit the 3 two trillion times and Strange Kevin hit the 5 and the 9 four million times each.
What would you think then? Is the game random or not?
It isn't if all those people had such perfect control of the dice that they only hit their given number and nothing else. If everyone who played at the table with them suddenly started betting with them after several hundred consecutive hits of a given number, certainly the casino would lose a bundle. The casino would consider the game to be no longer random and would probably close the table.
But what if nobody seemed to notice that certain shooters only hit certain numbers and, instead, these unaware shooters bet as they always bet? What if the bets were spread about equally throughout all the rolls? Then the casino would win just as much money from all the players as they did when the game was truly random and it wouldn't matter at all that all these people were godlike dice controllers.
Or, finally, what if our players only bet their favorite number whether they were shooting or not? So Bill Carbone just kept making that bet on the 2 for 36 trillion rolls, winning one trillion of them, losing the rest. Is the game random?
Is this some demented exercise with a gaming writer who has much too much time on his hands or am I about to explode a very interesting observation on you, one that has never been made before in the history of the world? It's the latter (I hope).
Here it is. The long version.
The Captain has maintained for a quarter of a century that there are three types of controlled shooters:
All the above shooters are characterized by their soft throws and the fact that the dice behave in a more or less uniform fashion. The Captain believes that those who use the 5-Count have a better chance of capitalizing on these shooters, especially if they use some form of Pass/Come betting -- his Supersystem for example -- in order to get on the "hot" numbers (aware players might also just Place these numbers). The Captain defines hot numbers as those numbers that are repeating because a shooter is in a groove or, in fact, consciously affecting the outcome of the rolls by his delivery. Someone winging the dice down the felt where they careen all over the place could be having a torrid roll – but he's just a random roller.
The Captain believes that the reason he has been so extraordinarily successful at craps for 25 years has to do with the fact that he has been on the "hot" shooters more often than the average player who is simply betting every shooter equally.
Is there any truth to his ideas? Well, if John and Pam Snode were shooting, the Captain would be on the 4 or 10 after the 5-Count was completed. He would ride these numbers as long as these two kept hitting them. The same would be true of the other shooters hitting the box numbers mentioned above. The Captain would be on them.
But here is the big point I'm making. The fact that rhythmic rollers might be out there in greater than believed numbers, especially temporary rhythmic rollers, and the fact that a few players such as the Captain will win on them, will not stop the average player from losing enough to make up for the Captain's wins and keep the game statistically looking as if it's random when the casino does its analysis of the table take.
Why is this? There will be unconscious rhythmic rollers who are increasing the appearance of the 7 while they themselves are not betting the "don't." Players betting "right" on these shooters will get creamed. There will be rollers who have an uncanny knack for hitting obscure numbers such as the 2 or 3 or 12. Come-out rolls could be dangerous with these individuals. A person who hits the 6 more than probability indicates will be nullified by a person who tends to hit the 7 more often than probability indicates.
If what I am speculating is true, the bottom line is this: There are a percentage of rhythmic rollers (of all types) that comprise (let's take a wild guess) 5 percent of all shooters. These rhythmic rollers are altering the game both on the "do" and the "don't" and canceling each other out! Like my example above, where the statistics looked as if the game were random when in reality you had supremely competent controlled shooters hitting lone numbers in the trillions; I say that in the real world something just like that might be taking place, albeit far more subtly and far less spectacularly.
Can a wise player take advantage of such situations, if what I'm saying is true?
Yes they can. I'll show you how in Part 2!
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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