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Odd man out?7 October 2014
I realized that since the odds are an even money bet, I am basically flipping a coin when I use them. Heads they help me and tails they hurt me, so to speak. After a long time, the money I win or lose with them evens out and it becomes a no-edge situation. On page 8 you state that the odds lower the casino edge on the (in italics) total wager. And on page 33 you state that the best bet is 1 pass line bet with max odds.
However, if you and I go to a table at the same time and I make a $10 pass line bet with no odds and you make a $10 bet with 100x odds, the casino edge against me is 1.41 percent and against you it is .02 percent. But if we stay for the same 100 rolls, me wagering $10 per roll and you betting $1,010 per roll, you will lose more money than I in the long run. (10 x 100 = $1,000 x .0141 = $14.10 while you bet 1,010 x 100 = $101,000 x .0002 = $20.20.)
And our comp value is the same if the casino does not count odds for comp purposes.
I had never considered that a lower house edge did not necessarily mean less money lost. My brother-in-law, a “craps only” guy, says I am wrong, but I am correct, aren't I? I look forward to your thoughts on this. Your book has a wealth of knowledge in it and the more I study and experiment, the more I learn and discover.
I do not control the dice as you do so it is a very different game for me, but I am learning.
FRANK RESPONDS: You are right and you are wrong. You are right that your expectation for every $10 Pass Line or Come bet is to lose 14.1 cents. The amount you put in odds is just more money being wagered without a casino edge attached to it. If you like, you can think of odds as zero dollars.
However, remember that the person putting $100 odds on his Pass Line or Come bet does not have those odds on all the time. He must go on the Come Out roll with just $10 until a point is established and on any Come bet with just $10 until it makes its way to a box number (24 point/box numbers; 12 non-point, non-box numbers). In short, he is betting against the house edge with the same amount as the guy who just puts a $10 bet down without any odds at all times. The odds only appear once a number is established. If you think of the odds as a zero percent, it gives a much clearer picture.
The loss for both individuals will be the same.
What will be different, way different in fact, concerns the volatility of the game. Wild swings occur at craps all the time. The $10 bettor with no odds will not take too much of a beating in a bad streak but he also will not hammer the house in a good streak. The fellow betting the odds will get clobbered in a cold streak but will hammer the casino in a hot streak.
Obviously, to use the odds bet you must have enough of a bankroll to withstand the wild swings that will inevitably occur.
Your brother-in-law (if I read this correctly) is correct if he is stating that they will both lose the same amount of money in the long haul. Treat him to a drink!
Frank Scoblete's new books are "I Am a Card Counter!" and "Confessions of a Wayward Catholic," both available on Amazon.com and Kindle.
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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