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John "Skinny's" the Big Enchilada bet at craps16 September 2012
In a different post entitled Odds for the Fire Bet, Dice Pilot opined about the fire bet for controlled shooters: "It would be an interesting mathematical problem to find out how the odds and probabilities change with an increase in a shooters' skill level. What would the results be with a SRR [editor’s note: SRR = Seven-to-Rolls Ratio; random is 1:6] of 1:7, 1:88, 1:9 or more and also changing the dice set to target the point numbers? I believe the software program SmartCraps will recommend this bet if you pass all three Pro-tests."
I do know there are better bets available if you want to look at bets that have a high payoff.
It seems the attraction of the fire bet is that you can get a 999 to 1 payoff. So for a "measly" $1 it is possible to walk away with $1,000 in one’s pocket. I put measly in quotes because over time those dollars add up to some real money. If you don't track carefully how you stand with your fire bet wagers there is a good chance this could be costing you a lot more than you imagine.
Having said that I did not like the idea of getting a 999 to 1 payoff on a wager that has greater than 6,000 to 1 odds for a random shooter. I realize the bet also pays off if you get only 4 or 5 different points made. But it seems to me most folks are not really making this bet for the $24 or $249 payoff. They all dream about walking away with either $1,000 or $5,000 (for the $5 wager).
So I did some thinking about this last night and came up with a potential solution for all you gamblers out there who like the fire bet for the reasons I have stated above. I made up a wager that is comparable to the fire bet without as bad a payout in relation to the true odds for the wager. I have dubbed this wager the "Big Enchilada."
What would you think about a wager that has better than 6,000 to 1 odds for a random shooter and pays out over $4,000 for a $1 bet? Furthermore, we have mathematical proof from SmartCraps that if you ARE an elite shooter, you will have a positive edge when making this bet. It is documented in Frank's book Cutting Edge Craps.
Do I have your attention now?
OK. Listen carefully. This wager will only pay off one way. In other words, it does not guarantee a payoff once you get part of the way there, as the fire bet does with the four and five points made. But there is a way to get a smaller payoff if that is what you wish.
You must decide you want to take the winnings and run once you get partway to the Big Enchilada, the over $4,000 for a $1 wager. And I did not forget you high rollers who want to wager $5 on the fire bet for the jackpot of $5,000. This wager will pay out over $16,000 instead of that paltry $5,000, AND you only have to wager $4 instead of $5 to get it. How about that – over $16,000 for a $4 wager!
Before I explain the Big Enchilada wager, let me explain how you can bail out early and take a smaller win that is comparable to the four- and five-point win for the fire bet. Remember the odds vs. payout for these two bets:
Make four numbers in the fire bet and win $24 instead of $113.
Make five numbers in the fire bet and win $249 instead of $609.
In my Big Enchilada wager, you can win $63 instead of $80.
In my Big Enchilada wager, you can win $511 instead of $728.
If you don't want to go for the Big Enchilada, you can take a smaller profit and run. But in all cases you are getting a much better payout in relation to the true odds than you are with the fire bet.
Those of you who like puzzles and are good with math may want to stop here before reading any further to see if you can figure out the wager I am talking about. It is a regular wager that can be found on all craps tables, and with the information I have given above, you may be able to figure out the bet.
For those of you who are less curious, I will explain the Big Enchilada in the next paragraph.
This bet has a better payout than the fire bet for the same or less money wagered. It still has a terrible house advantage for the random roller. But if you feel you want to gamble on a big payoff for a small wager, it pays much closer to the true odds than the fire bet. I am talking about a parlay on the all day hard 4 or all day hard 10.
Here is the Big Enchilada wager. Bet $1 on the hard 4 or 10. Each time you hit the bet, parlay all of the winnings and your original bet. If you hit the bet 4 times in a row, you will walk away with a total of $4,096 in your pocket. That is a profit of $4,095 over your original $1 wager. You will have been paid 4,095 to 1 for a wager that has true odds of 6,560 to 1 for a random roller.
Let us go through this in detail so that everyone is clear on this wager. You want to make the Big Enchilada wager and decide you are going to do it on the hard 4. You wager $1 on the hard 4. After it hits the first time the dealer will pay you $7. You tell him to parlay your wager to $8. When it hits a second time the dealer will pay you $56. You still have your $8 up on the table and you tell him to parlay your bet again. This time it looks like $64.
Now when you hit the hard 4 a third time you will be paid $448. Tell the dealer to parlay your bet again and he will add your $448 winning to your $64 wager for a $512 wager on the hard 4. Now when you hit the bet for the fourth time you get paid a whopping $3584. Take your bet down at this point and you walk away with the Big Enchilada of $4,096. That amounts to a $4,095 profit on your original $1 wager. The true odds of hitting that parlay four times are 6,560 to 1.
Remember I also said you could bail out early and take a smaller profit if that is more to your liking. Here is how that would work. You could take your profit after you hit the bet 2 or 3 times in a row. In other words when you hit the bet the first time you parlay your $7 winnings with your original $1 wager for an $8 wager on the hard 4. When it hits a second time you get paid $56 in winnings. You take your $8 wager down and walk away with $64, a $63 profit over your original $1 bet.
If you want to try for three hits, you parlay your $56 winnings with your $8 wager for a $64 total wager on the hard 4. When it hits a third time you get paid $448. If you take down your bet at this point you walk away with a total of $512, a $511 profit over your original $1 bet.
But for those who want the Big Enchilada, you must parlay your $448 winning with your $64 wager after the third hit for a total $512 wager on the hard 4. When it hits, you collect $3,584 plus your $512 wager and walk with the Big Enchilada: $4,096, a $4,095 profit over your $1 original wager!
I don't want to leave out you high rollers out there. Most casinos will only pay out $15,000 maximum on any prop bet. A wager of $2,143 on the hard 4 or 10 should pay out $15,001 but it will only pay the $15,000 maximum at most casinos. If you were to wager $5 on the Big Enchilada the parlay after the third hit would be over the $2,143 amount. So you only have to start with a $4 wager to get a big payout. If you start with a $4 wager you will collect $1,792 after your third hit. By parlaying that with the $256 wager you had up you will be wagering a total of $2,048. After the fourth hit you will collect $14,336 plus your wager of $2,048 to walk away with the really really Big Enchilada of $16,384, a profit of $16,380 over your original $4 wager.
The odds of making 2 hits in the Big Enchilada are 1 to 80.
The odds of making 3 hits in the Big Enchilada are 1 to 728.
The odds of making 4 hits in the Big Enchilada are 1 to 6,560.
The payout on making 2 hits in the Big Enchilada is 63 to 1.
The payout on making 3 hits in the Big Enchilada is 511 to 1.
The payout on making 4 hits in the Big Enchilada is 4,095 to 1.
What the casino pays and what a true payout would be when you bet $1 on the Big Enchilada.
Make 2 hits in the Big Enchilada and win $63 instead of $80.
Make 3 hits in the Big Enchilada and win $511 instead of $728.
Make 4 hits in the Big Enchilada and win $4,095 instead of $6,560.
Compare that to the fire bet.
Make 4 numbers in the fire bet and win $24 instead of $113.
Make 5 numbers in the fire bet and win $249 instead of $609.
Make 6 numbers in the fire bet and win $999 instead of $6,172.
What looks like the better bet to you?
So far I have only talked about the upside of the Big Enchilada. I would now like to turn to the downside.
I suspect many of you are saying I could not possibly go for that third parlay. I would be a nervous wreck if I had $512 on the hard 4 or 10 looking for a total $4,096 pay out. Some of you may not even be able to conceive of doing a parlay after your second hit much less after your third hit. You may be saying to yourself it would be impossible for you to control the dice if you had that much riding on the bet! You are afraid it would get into your head and it would affect your toss.
Well, what do you think happens to you in the fire bet after you get up to 3, 4 and 5 points made? I will bet a lot of you are not able to perform 100 percent after making three points. Even fewer after four points and way less after five points.
I am positive that anyone who gets up to the four or five point level starts to think about getting the next point. You start altering your set trying to establish the point(s) you have not made yet. Then if you are fortunate enough to establish that fifth or sixth point, nerves will play a part in your future performance. It takes a lot of practice and experience to be able to play that far above one's comfort level and not have it impact one's performance.
The only way to gain the experience is to get there and try it. Think back to how nervous you were the first time you tried to control the dice under live conditions after learning the skill. That changed with practice and EXPERIENCE. You needed several sessions under live conditions to get over the nervousness and uneasy feeling that you did not have at home when practicing. If you don't think you can handle the Big Enchilada because of the money that would be on the line, you probably cannot handle the fire bet either when you start getting close to the final payout.
In chapter five of Frank's new book, Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players! he goes into “Some More Radical Betting Options.” In that section on page 39, he has charts for the Hard 4 and 10. They cover what type of advantage a skilled player with differing levels of skill will have on this wager.
If you feel you must make a wager that has a high payout, you may want to consider the Big Enchilada instead of the fire bet. I know the payouts are better in relation to the true odds. If you qualify for the skill level needed to get an advantage over the hard 4 or 10 according to the charts in Frank's book, this may be something you want to consider.
I have tried to give you some food for thought. Let me know what you think.
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