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Is setting for the field number a smart bet?3 December 2009
I just received a letter asking me if setting for a yo-eleven or a 12 in order to get field numbers is a smart bet. This individual had read somewhere that setting this way could improve his chances of hitting the field numbers of 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 and 12. He said he had a good command of dice control and that he figured he could do this.
Now, assuming we believe this person is a good shooter, would going for the 16 field combinations be a smart bet?
The answer is a resounding no.
The field has a 5.6% house edge, which means a shooter must have an extremely good command of dice control to be able to overcome it. Many players think, "Wow, there are sixteen ways to make these numbers!" Of course, there are 20 ways to lose as well.
The field actually can be looked at as having 18 ways of bringing in the money since the 2 and 12 will pay 2 to 1. Okay, you can look at it that way as well.
Even if the field pays 3 to 1 on either a 2 or 12, the bet is still not as good as other ways to approach controlled shooting. This can be proven simply.
If you can set for the field and bring those numbers up and have an edge (yes, this would have to be a darn good shooter!) imagine how much more money you could make setting to hit the 6, 8, 4 and 10, which have the same number of ways to make them — 16! But instead of facing a 5.6% edge on the field wager, by betting the 6, 8, 4, and 10 numbers, you will only face an edge that is about four times less!
The 6 and 8 have a house edge of 1.52%; the 4 and 10 have a house edge of 1.3% if you can pay the $1 or $2 vig on a $25 or $50 bet on wins only.
With 16 ways to make these four numbers, you will hit them the same amount of time as you will hit the Field, yet you will make significantly more money doing so — about four times more!
Controlled shooters have to realize that the more you bet into high house-edge bets, the less you make. Even if you take some of the elite GTC shooters who have outrageously good control, they make less money on the high house edge bets too. They may be able to overcome the high house edges, yes, but those edges eat away at them just as they eat away at the random rollers too.
So, bottom line, should you set for and try to hit the field numbers? The answer is a resounding no.
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at email@example.com.
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