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Frank Scoblete Presents: System players are passionate! by Skinny20 March 2009
Frank Scoblete presents an article by Skinny.
Do you think you have discovered a system to beat the game of craps? Look at the various system statements I show in quotes in the article below. If you find any of your ideas in those quotes you need to pay careful attention to my conclusions.
I love a man with passion. Without passion about what we believe in and life in general, this planet would be a pretty dull place. Purpose without passion is a daydream.
Reason and passion are not opposites, though. In fact, they are complementary and properly go together. Therefore, I know you will consider carefully my observations regarding your theories. While there is a basis in mathematics and probability in some of what you say, you are misunderstanding some basic principles, which are leading you to erroneous conclusions.
"The betting patterns I use are based on a disciplined limited number of rolls per point."
You seem to believe this provides you with a way of reducing your chance of seeing the 7 because the probability of a player having an extended roll is small. You may have seen this in a book, deduced it yourself, purchased it from a "system" seller or arrived at it in some other fashion. This is a common misconception among laymen who have not studied probability theory. I am certain you have heard the probability of red coming out on the next roll of the ball after red came out nine times in a row is still 50%. But the probability of red coming out 10 times in a row is 18/38 raised to the 10th power, which is an extremely small number. This confuses people and leads them to believe as you do it is to their advantage to take their bets down after a limited number of rolls. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
On each and every roll in a random game your money has the same exposure to risk. The probability of a 7 being thrown is always 16 2/3%.
By taking your bets down too early you are losing money on bets you would have won. By leaving your bets up one throw too long you lose money because the 7 appears and wipes out your bets. The problem is you never know when to take those bets down because you never know when the 7 is going to appear. Your bets have the same probability of winning and losing on each and every roll in a random game. The odds do not change in your favor by limiting the number of rolls you keep your money on the table. Your money has the same exposure to risk for every roll in which it is on the table.
"…the propaganda offered by the so-called 'professionals,' the house, authors and general consensus are that the free odds bet is the best, most lucrative bet in the casino."
The science of Mathematics and Probability Theory prove that the free odds bet is the best bet available in a standard craps game. But like every other bet on a craps table it comes with a price. Frank often refers to this as the "tax" the house extracts on each and every bet. This is because one can only make a free odds bet on top of a line bet, which comes with a house advantage of 1.4%. The free odds bet has a 0% house advantage. It does not change the house advantage on the line bet. Nor does it change the amount of money you can expect to lose on your line bet with or without odds. What it does do is reduce the percentage of money you can expect to lose in relation to the total amount you bet, which is the same as saying it reduces the house advantage on your total bet.
"If it was, the casinos would be out of business."
If people only made pass/come and don't pass/don't come wagers with full odds the casinos would still extract their 1.4% of all the money wagered on the line. They would only break even on the odds portion. They still extract their "tax" on each line bet. They do not care if you take odds or not. They certainly would not be out of business because they still have to make a profit.
"Craps players lose because (1) they have no plan, (2) they do not set limits or goals on how much they win or lose, (3) ignorance of the rules, (4) lack of discipline and patience, and (5) they leave their money out on the table TOO LONG."
I completely agree with 1, 3 and 4. I agree with 2 except for the part about setting goals on how much they win. As you may have gathered by now, I disagree with number 5 for the reasons I have stated. Of course when discussing 5, I am only talking about bets where one has an advantage over the house. When it comes to random shooters, I fully agree in limiting the amount of money and time that money is on the table. But for the population of random players I stand by what I said above.
"Take a look around the casino again. Customers are playing roulette, carnival card games, 21, pai gow, slots, and on and on. They do not seem to be worried about the odds or the house advantage on payouts. They just blunder on."
That is exactly the reason Frank writes books about gambling to educate the collective masses in an attempt to reverse what you have correctly stated above. That is the reason I am going to the trouble to write all of this and share my knowledge and experience with Mathematics and Probability. I am hoping to help you in your quest to win as well as others who are of a like mind.
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at email@example.com.
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