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Dopey Bets12 October 2006
My wife, the beautiful AP, has told me that I am losing my much-vaunted patience with gamblers. And, you know, I think she is right. I have become much less well disposed to players who claim that by some trick of betting or some system of placing bets that they can overcome the house edge at craps (or other games). They can't.
Now, I know that they can't and you know that they can't (hey, you better know that!) but they don't know it. "I make this bet, hedge it with that bet, parley, press and…." And lose. Yes, all gamblers have some winning nights, some winning streaks even, but all gamblers are ultimately losers (except for the few who hit Megabucks). If the math of the game is against you, the longer you play, the better chance you have of being…a loser.
But long-term losers think nothing of touting their expertise over the games nevertheless.
Okay, so I have lost my patience with gamblers who puff that they can beat the games with betting systems or using high house edge bets. If you claim you can beat a game then you had better be doing something that can get you a real, verified edge, such as card counting and dice control.
But what really fries my goose are the supposed gaming "experts" who also recommend bad bets and bad systems; gaming "experts" who also denigrate the math of the games or misconstrue just what luck is and what luck isn't.
Here's an example of luck: You have a come-out bet on the Pass Line and your friend has a come-out bet on the Don't Pass. A seven is rolled. Is that good luck or bad luck? Obviously, it's both. You had good luck because you won; your friend had bad luck; he lost. In all casino games where you play against a house edge, the long run means bad luck for the players and good luck for the casinos.
Why is that? Because the casinos either win more decisions than the players (on the Pass Line, for example, the casinos win 251 decisions for every 244 they lose - the players are the reverse of that, obviously) or the casinos take a tax (called the "vig") from winning bets. If you place the 6 or 8 for $6, you get paid $7, not $7.20, which is the true odds payout. There is no way around these facts. No betting system; no praying system; no nothing can change the nature of craps. However, if you change the math of the game, you can win in the long run. That's a big "if" naturally.
I have also lost my patience with the Internet "gaming experts" who recommend silly systems of play for their unwary followers.
Some of these hopeless, hapless Internet "experts" pronounce themselves "advantage players," or "dice controllers," when, in fact, the bets they are advocating have such high initial house edges that no skillful player can overcome them. The Internet "experts" whirl through the various free chat rooms and message boards huffing and puffing and blowing wind about their great skills and betting acumen, claiming to be able to beat the game of craps making bets where the house edges are anywhere from nine to 16.67 percent!
Can they do this? Having seen some of them in actual casino action, the answer is a simple "no."
This isn't something that is hard to comprehend. Let's say that as a dice controller your skill is able to give you a 10 percent edge in an even game against the house. If you make the place bet of the 6 or 8, you will face an initial house edge of 1.5 percent because the house does not pay this bet at the true odds of 6-to-5 but rather at the house odds of 7-to-6. With your 10 percent edge and the casino's 1.5 percent edge, your actual, real-life edge is now 8.5 percent. Well let us say that you decide not to bet the 6 or 8, but you want to place the 11 or 3 - where the house edge is 11.11 percent.
Do you have an actual edge over the house? No, you don't. You have not changed the nature of the game enough to overcome such a dopey bet. You are playing now against a house edge of 1.11 percent. What's the point of being an "advantage player" when you don't have an advantage?
Let me give you two simple examples of how Internet gaming "experts" deliberately hoodwink or, if they are really stupid, unknowingly hoodwink the poor souls who read their writing and listen to their ideas.
One Internet "expert" states that he loves to make a crazy crapper bet if that number was just rolled. So if the 2 or 12 has just been rolled, our "expert" will bet the number. The house edge on such a bet is a humongous 13.8 percent. Remember what that means. The casino will win $13.80 for every $100 the player bets on this proposition. There are no "ands," "ifs," or "buts" about it.
The Internet "expert" would have you believe that these numbers come in bunches. They don't, except on the rare times when they do - but unless you are psychic you can't predict the rare times when they do. If you make these bets, the longer you play, the more likely you'll be losing at or close to the house edge.
Another Internet "expert" says that the math of craps is irrelevant to the game. Just go with your "feelings." Your "higher self" knows what is about to happen and all you have to do is tune into this higher self to win in the long run. Well, maybe the casinos are attuned to their higher selves but I can tell you, I have yet to meet a player who believes this nonsense and actually wins.
If you have the ability to control the dice, then the mental aspects of the game become very important. One needs to be calm and cool and relaxed when one shoots the dice - one's higher self has to be grooved in! But that is a whole different ball game.
But no player who plays without an edge is going to beat the casinos in the long run. The casinos take that fact to the bank - regularly! Be wise and keep that in mind.
This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at email@example.com.
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