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Ask Frank17 August 2002
I wish I could take credit for the 5-Count but it wasn't my idea. The Captain deserves full credit for figuring it out.
As for the doey-don't, if my explanation of its effectiveness is not convincing that's my fault and not the Captain's. In a random game, which you and Scarne believe craps to be, then the doey-don't with full odds is just giving the house that much more of an edge over you than simply betting Pass and Come and taking full odds. I agree. And I would be wrong for recommending such a betting scheme over the traditional one - again, if craps were strictly a random game.
However, if craps is not a random game (or, more accurately, a fully random game), then some shooters are changing the underlying math by physical means. They are, for example, decreasing the appearance of the 7 and increasing the appearance of certain other numbers, their signature numbers. I grant you this is a very controversial area of gambling theory and not all gambling writers agree with me. In fact, most probably shy away from giving these ideas any credence whatsoever. I also realize that I have played a tremendous amount of craps in the last 14 years and base much of my opinion on experience and the results of myself, the Captain and the slowly growing ranks of rhythmic rollers who have documented their ability to influence the dice to, as I said, offset the 7.
If you entertain for a moment the Captain's thesis (and mine) that certain shooters are changing the nature of the game by their rolling ability, then you have to decide what is the best way to bet on them. Pass and Come would not be. If they are indeed reducing the appearance of the 7, you are giving away too much on the Pass and Come cycle of the game because the 7's six appearances on the Come-Out and the initial placement of a Come bet have been reduced. But you also don't want to give the casino edges of 4% and 6.67% on placing numbers such as 5 and 9, 4 and 10, respectively. Even a good rhythmic roller would have trouble overcoming the math of those bets. Also, you don't necessarily know in advance which numbers a rhythmic roller will be hitting (except for yourself, if you have really strong signature numbers), so you usually wait until he has hit a few numbers to Place your bets. Isn't it better to have a doey-don't bet up right away so that you'll be on the shooter's numbers with a much lower vig than Placing?
Anyway, that's the theory behind the Captain's recommendation of the doey-don't as a betting method in tandem with the 5-Count.
Jerry, I don't know if you've looked into the matter of rhythmic rolling seriously, or if you've tried to do it, but I can say the evidence I've seen for it is very convincing, just as convincing as the evidence for card counting in blackjack. However, like card counting, the edges you get as a rhythmic roller are not monumental, but they are real. Can everybody do it? Probably not. Could you? Probably, yes. Let me recommend that you read Get the Edge at Craps: How to Control the Dice by Sharpshooter. That book, the definitive book on rhythmic rolling, will be out around September 20, 2002.
As far as the house changing the rules of craps, it probably won't happen. They'd lose business. When they changed the rules for blackjack, players stopped playing it and the profits plummeted. The casinos went back to the old rules, albeit with more decks in play. Casinos have learned (or I hope they've learned) that like a fine wine, good casino games such as blackjack and craps should not be spoiled by adding new elements to the mix. By trial and error over the years, these games have evolved in a way that gives them an enduring popularity. In other words, don't fix them if they ain't broke!
All the best in and out of the casinos!
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