CasinoCityTimes.com

Gurus
News
Newsletter
Author Home Author Archives Author Books Search Articles Subscribe
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter!
Newsletter Signup
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter!
Frank Scoblete Archives
More Strategy Experts

Gaming Guru

author's picture
 

The Numbers Behind Baccarat

19 November 2019

By Frank Scoblete
Following up on my last article on baccarat, let’s take a look at the rules for how the casino handles the hands. I say casino handling the hands as these hit and stand decisions are set in stone and players have no rights to change how the hands are handled.

Rules for Player Hands:

If first two cards total: Action

1-2-3-4-5-0 Player draws a card
6-7 Player stands
8-9 Player and Bank must stand

Rules for Bank Hands:

If Bank’s first two cards total: Draw when Player’s third card is: Do not draw when Player’s third card is:
3 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10 8
4 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 1, 8, 9, 10
5 4, 5, 6, 7 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10
6 6, 7 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10
7 stands stands
8 Natural stands Natural stands
9 Natural stands Natural stands

A winning Player hand is paid off at one to one. Thus, if you bet $100, you win $100. A winning Bank hand is paid off at even money with a commission, usually five percent, extracted on each win. This means that if you bet $100, you win $95. This commission is collected after the shoe is finished but you can request to “pay as you go.” The Tie hand is paid at eight to one. Thus, a winning tie wager of $10 will return $80. If you bet on either Bank or Player and the Tie wins, you do not lose your bet. It is a push.

The Tie bet is one of the worst bets in the casino – with more than a 14 percent edge which means your expectation is to lose $14 for every $100 you wager on the Tie, so let’s not even consider making it. Since the Tie bet does not affect the other two bets, Player and Bank, we’ll concentrate on how we arrive at the house edge for these bets.

  • The Player bet wins 49.32 percent of the time.
  • The Player bet loses 50.68 percent of the time.

Translate that into money and for every $100 wagered on the Player bet, you will lose $1.36. ($50.68 minus $49.32 equals $1.36.) The casino edge is therefore 1.36 percent.

  • The Bank bet wins 50.68 percent of the time.
  • The Bank bet loses 49.32 percent of the time.

Without any interference, the Bank bet would have a 1.36 percent edge in its favor. If the casinos allowed this to stand, no one would bet Player and everyone would bet Bank until the casinos went bankrupt. To avoid this, the casinos charge that five percent commission on all winning Bank bets. In actuality, you only win 95 cents on the dollar on a winning Bank wager as stated. This reverses the situation and gives the casino a smallish 1.17 percent edge.

How does a five percent commission reduce the edge to 1.17 percent? When you lose the Bank bet, you lose $49.32 for every $100 wagered. But when you win the bet, you win $50.68 X .95, which comes out to $48.15. Therefore, $49.32 minus $48.15 equals $1.17 lost per $100 dollars wagered – in short, a 1.17 percent edge for the casinos.

Now purists would dispute the above figures because they want to count the Tie bet in the equations. I prefer not to since making the Tie bet does not, I repeat, does not exist in my baccarat world. When Tie bets appear, I just think of it as more time between hands and not as a part of the game. The bet does not exist. The Tie bet appears approximately 10 percent of the time and pays off at 8 to 1. Still to be comprehensive, here are the house edges if we count the Tie bet.

  • Player = 1.24 percent
  • Bank = 1.06 percent
  • Tie = 14.36 percent (ugh!)

Some casinos will pay the Tie bet off at 9 to 1 and this cuts the house edge to about 5 percent, still not a good bet. Bottom line is never bet the Tie bet even if you see someone hooting and hollering when he hits it. Over time, the bet sinks all players; it is the Tie-tanic of baccarat!

All the best in and out of the casinos!

(Next week discover the dangerous speed of mini-baccarat. This article was adapted from Frank's book Casino Conquest.)

Visit Frank's web site at www.frankscoblete.com.

This article is provided by the Frank Scoblete Network. Melissa A. Kaplan is the network's managing editor. If you would like to use this article on your website, please contact Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet for the Frank Scoblete Network. To contact Frank, please e-mail him at fscobe@optonline.net.

 

Let's play baccarat

12 November 2019
There are two baccarat games played in casinos: big high-roller-room baccarat and mini-baccarat, with mini-baccarat being the dominant of the two. Baccarat is perhaps the most accessible of all the table games because it is, when you play it correctly, betting on the equivalent of a coin flip. The ... (read more)
 

Numbers, numbers everywhere

5 November 2019
I’ve been writing gambling columns for Casino Player for almost 30 years. I’ve always tried to make my columns clear and understandable. I think I succeeded (I hope I succeeded). But today’s column is different. It might be confusing. You might think it is brilliant or idiotic. It came out of a dream I had last night. ... (read more)
 

Money management at slots

29 October 2019
Does this sound right? The bartender pours your favorite drink. You sip it in a leisurely fashion. You are adult and cool, calm and considered, as you imbibe slowly. In fact, you are feeling somewhat philosophical as you nurse your drink. Other folks are at this trendy bar as well. It is a truly nice atmosphere for a mature and calm adult such as you to do some serious thinking. ... (read more)

Next 10 Articles >

  • Featured Articles

Ask Frank: Spanish 21 Strategy

Hello there, Living in Canada, I find that the rules are more liberal here than at other casino locales, such as the dealer standing on all 17s for Spanish Blackjack. In your book, Armada Strategies for Spanish 21, there is only a strategy for when the dealer hits soft 17. I w... (read more)
 

Ask Frank (Playing Winning Craps)

Dear Mr. Scoblete: In your book Forever Craps, you recommend to play one Don't Come bet per shooter without odds in order to reduce your exposure to the house. I usually play at casinos that count the spread and odds. If I play one ... (read more)
 

Bad Ways to Play Good Casino Games

You've met this guy before. He's cantankerous, witless, and loud. He knows everything about everything when it comes to casino games. He's a self-made expert who knows more than all writers and mathematicians combined, and as he doubles on his thirteen against the dealer's ... (read more)
 

The Craps to English Dictionary

Craps is another country, a kingdom with its own mores, legends, myths, rites, rituals, superstitions and government. It also has its own language, much of it easily misunderstood as sexual or scatological references. For those of you interested in journeying to this ... (read more)
 

Craps Crap and Craps Gold - Part 1

What do the following sayings have in common? "An apple a day keeps the doctor away." "Better late than never." "High fences make good neighbors." "Always play the Pass/Come and take full odds." Answer: The above statements are true. Yes, some people might quibble and say that you can eat as ... (read more)
Frank Scoblete
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best selling gaming author in America. His newest books are Slots Conquest: How to Beat the Slot Machines; Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker!; Beat Blackjack Now: The Easiest Way to Get the Edge; Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!; Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players; Casino Conquest: Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games! and The Virgin Kiss.

Frank and Casino City Times columnist Jerry "Stickman" teach private lessons in dice control. Frank's books are available at Amazon.com, in bookstores or by mail order. Call 1-800-944-0406 or write to Frank Scoblete Enterprises, PO Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565. Frank can also be reached by email at fscobe@optonline.net.

Frank Scoblete Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com

Books by Frank Scoblete:

> More Books By Frank Scoblete

Frank Scoblete
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best selling gaming author in America. His newest books are Slots Conquest: How to Beat the Slot Machines; Everything Casino Poker: Get the Edge at Video Poker, Texas Hold'em, Omaha Hi-Lo and Pai Gow Poker!; Beat Blackjack Now: The Easiest Way to Get the Edge; Casino Craps: Shoot to Win!; Cutting Edge Craps: Advanced Strategies for Serious Players; Casino Conquest: Beat the Casinos at Their Own Games! and The Virgin Kiss.

Frank and Casino City Times columnist Jerry "Stickman" teach private lessons in dice control. Frank's books are available at Amazon.com, in bookstores or by mail order. Call 1-800-944-0406 or write to Frank Scoblete Enterprises, PO Box 446, Malverne, NY 11565. Frank can also be reached by email at fscobe@optonline.net.

Frank Scoblete Websites:

www.goldentouchcraps.com
www.goldentouchblackjack.com

Books by Frank Scoblete:

> More Books By Frank Scoblete